Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-15 2.187417 2.318688 2.457186 2.614787 2.789891 2.979331 3.200938
2025-06-22 1.969410 2.145997 2.341269 2.575236 2.850703 3.168307 3.567622
2025-06-29 1.823158 2.022041 2.248800 2.530083 2.874933 3.291376 3.844589
2025-07-06 1.705562 1.916362 2.162237 2.475400 2.871678 3.368432 4.059483
2025-07-13 1.652834 1.880812 2.152750 2.508426 2.973393 3.579745 4.467036
2025-07-20 1.612212 1.855428 2.151446 2.548156 3.082840 3.807200 4.922255
2025-07-27 1.579072 1.836043 2.154632 2.591395 3.197443 4.049717 5.431022
2025-08-03 1.526063 1.788062 2.117427 2.576856 3.228944 4.173643 5.771137
2025-08-10 1.477289 1.742685 2.080466 2.559041 3.252501 4.285407 6.104835
2025-08-17 1.428559 1.694915 2.037503 2.529457 3.255301 4.363481 6.389823
2025-08-24 1.383787 1.650303 1.996370 2.499447 3.254189 4.433523 6.669069
2025-08-31 1.354060 1.624200 1.978736 2.501329 3.300504 4.583560 7.123309
2025-09-07 1.332835 1.609171 1.976244 2.525985 3.385576 4.810688 7.785543
2025-09-14 1.292129 1.566365 1.933416 2.488677 3.369355 4.860373 8.086226
2025-09-21 1.252367 1.523460 1.888676 2.445999 3.341039 4.884848 8.335432
2025-09-28 1.212124 1.478638 1.839576 2.394277 3.294228 4.870590 8.492147
2025-10-05 1.200238 1.472376 1.844843 2.425520 3.387496 5.127430 9.368022
2025-10-12 1.190933 1.469205 1.854144 2.463084 3.493902 5.422715 10.440888
2025-10-19 1.183011 1.467563 1.865370 2.503943 3.608955 5.751117 11.737424
2025-10-26 1.160129 1.443991 1.843373 2.490207 3.624783 5.873772 12.460205
2025-11-02 1.137555 1.420208 1.820209 2.473373 3.633539 5.981964 13.180468
2025-11-09 1.113060 1.393027 1.791089 2.445407 3.619606 6.038002 13.744669
2025-11-16 1.089556 1.366697 1.762460 2.417027 3.603028 6.086258 14.305111